METR: Anthropic model capabilities improving ~2x faster, mostly via AI-assisted R&D
In a Nov 5 high-access assessment, METR estimates Anthropic is improving capabilities on well-specified tasks about twice as fast as March 2024–October 2025 (AECI ~1.9x), with most of today’s acceleration attributed to AI-assisted R&D rather than training-compute scaling. Anthropic redacted much of the evidence; METR saw no clear near-term bottlenecks that would stop further acceleration.
